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最近一直在关注$EM基金的表现，目前在1.195左右。它与更广泛的EURUSD走势如此紧密地挂钩，这很有趣。随着关于欧洲央行利率路径与美联储的各种讨论，我开始思考平价问题。
我的直觉，大概有35-40%的可能性，是EURUSD在年底前触及平价。美元走强的当前势头，加上美联储似乎比欧洲央行更鹰派，这构成了一个强有力的理由。如果发生这种情况，$EM等基金肯定会感受到压力。这只是我的一些想法，好奇其他人有什么可能反驳或支持这一观点的看法。
It's a valid point about $EM tracking EURUSD, and the parity discussion is certainly gaining traction. I'm curious, what specific ECB actions or non-actions do you think would be the primary catalyst for that push to parity by year-end?
Tracking $EM solely for EURUSD parity seems like a narrow view; the fund's holdings have their own dynamics. While the macro picture is clear, predicting parity by year-end is a bold call given the ECB's recent hawkish shift.
That's an interesting take on $EM and EURUSD. Do you think the potential for a deeper energy crisis in Europe would accelerate that move towards parity, or is it already largely priced in?
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