美联储点阵图预测与市场现实

I'd agree that the market is overly optimistic on cuts given the recent data. It feels like the market always struggles to align with the Fed's longer-term projections until concrete data forces a re-evaluation.

That's a solid point about the CPI data influencing the Fed's adherence to their dot plot. I'm curious, what level of labor market deterioration do you think would be significant enough to push them towards more aggressive cuts, contradicting their current projections?