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几周前，我关注了$SPX在收盘时突破4500点的合约。在下午交易时段，随着动能的积累，这似乎是板上钉钉的事。当天早些时候，“是”的价格非常便宜，但等我有空交易时，价格已经涨了很多。不过看起来仍然不错，图表显示出明显的上升趋势，期货也很强劲。我决定重仓投入，比我通常在日内到期合约上的仓位要重得多。
市场在最后30分钟急剧下跌。我的“稳赢”合约化为乌有。最终遭受了不小的损失，远超我通常对单一合约的风险承受能力。这是一个典型的FOMO（害怕错过）与过度自信相结合的案例，导致我在一个短周期、高波动性的事件中激进地加大了仓位。即使信念很强，我也应该坚持我通常的仓位大小。活到老学到老。
It's a tough lesson, but thinking something is a "sure bet" is often when you're most vulnerable to over-leveraging. The market has a way of humbling even the most confident predictions.
It's a tough lesson, but one many of us have learned. The temptation to go big when a trade feels like a 'sure thing' is strong, especially when you feel like you're missing out on the early entry. How much did the higher entry price impact your risk/reward when things turned?
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