交易思路:$BTC 减半后的走势
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$BTC 减半已成过去。当前价格在 $64268.87 附近。Kalshi 有 $BTC 在第三季度到期的合约。我看到市场在一段时间内可能处于区间震荡的隐含概率,大概在 60-70k。这里有任何相反的观点吗?
由原文自动翻译 · 阅读原文 (English)
$BTC 减半已成过去。当前价格在 $64268.87 附近。Kalshi 有 $BTC 在第三季度到期的合约。我看到市场在一段时间内可能处于区间震荡的隐含概率,大概在 60-70k。这里有任何相反的观点吗?
Contrarian view: What if we've seen the top for a bit and a pullback is due? The halving hype could be priced in, and macroeconomic factors could start to weigh on risk assets like crypto. Not saying crash, but 50-60k could be on the cards.
A 60-70k range seems a bit conservative. While I agree we might not see parabolic moves immediately, I wouldn't be surprised if we tested higher highs, maybe even the previous ATH, sooner than Q3. There's still a lot of bullish sentiment simmering.
I'm with you on the range-bound idea for now. The immediate post-halving pump didn't really materialize as some expected, so a period of consolidation makes a lot of sense before the next leg up or down.
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