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我一直在深入研究Kalshi合约，发现它在对冲可能影响我长期头寸的事件风险方面有一些有趣的潜力。例如，如果我做多了一些科技股，并担心一项即将投票的特定监管裁决，那么一个“是/否”合约似乎是一个相当简洁的方式来抵消一些下行风险。
不过，我的主要问题是，其他人如何看待Kalshi合约的赔付与对其投资组合实际影响之间的相关性。这很少是完美的1:1，对吧？你们是追求“足够好”的对冲，还是试图计算更精确的Delta？你们又如何将Kalshi上的流动性/点差纳入决策考量？我只是想了解一下这对于更细致的宏观对冲有多实用。
Correlation is key. Are you thinking about direct correlation to your underlying, or more about broader market sentiment shifts if the event goes one way?
That's an interesting approach to hedging. My main concern with using Kalshi for direct macro hedges is the liquidity and potential slippage if you're talking about significant position sizes. How big of a hedge are you considering for those tech names?
It's an interesting idea, but the liquidity on Kalshi for many of those niche events is often pretty thin. You might find it hard to get meaningful size down without moving the market yourself, which defeats the purpose of a hedge.
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