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最近我一直在关注 Kalshi，尤其是在市场近期波动加剧的情况下。我很好奇这里是否有人积极使用他们的事件合约，不是为了纯粹的投机，而是更多地将其作为对冲宏观变化的一种方式？我正在考虑他们的 CPI 或美联储利率合约。这是一个有趣的概念，基本上是为一个可能直接影响投资组合的结果设定一个受监管的市场价格。例如，如果你做多一个对加息敏感的板块，那么关于下一次美联储会议的 Kalshi 合约能否有效缓冲一些下行风险？我不确定其中一些合约对于较大头寸的流动性如何，但对于散户交易者来说，这似乎是一种表达对事件看法的结构化方式，而无需涉足期权或其他更复杂的衍生品。对于这种方法，有什么想法或经验吗？
I've considered Kalshi for hedging as well, particularly with the Fed rate contracts. My main hesitation has been around liquidity for larger positions, especially if you're trying to genuinely offset a significant portfolio risk. Have you looked into the average daily volume on the contracts you're considering?
I've considered Kalshi for hedging, particularly the CPI contracts. It's an interesting way to gain exposure to specific macro outcomes without direct market plays.
I've considered Kalshi for hedging as well, especially their Fed rate hike contracts. The main hurdle for me is sizing – it's tough to get sufficient notional value to make a meaningful hedge against a larger portfolio position without encountering liquidity issues.
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