理解 Kalshi 合约中的风险回报

It's true the binary nature simplifies the outcome, but the probabilities can still shift dramatically, impacting the actual risk/reward mid-contract. Are you factoring in how much the probability changes are discounted into the contract price?

That's a great point about the binary nature of Kalshi contracts. It really forces a different kind of risk assessment compared to continuous markets, where adjusting positions is an option. I've found it makes position sizing even more critical.

The binary nature is precisely why it's less about a continuum and more about your win rate weighted by the payout odds. If you're consistently picking contracts with 1.2x payout at 50/50 odds, you'll lose money over time. You need to identify where the market is mispricing the probability.