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拉加德昨天鹰派言论与市场对降息的普遍预期有些脱节。我们看到$EURCHF在0.9351，保持住了，但感觉市场仍在试图弄清楚欧洲央行是否真的“言出必行”，或者这只是为了稳定通胀预期的姿态。在Kalshi上，我正在关注“欧洲央行6月前降息”的合约。隐含概率仍然倾向于降息，但如果拉加德继续保持这种态度，这些概率可能会迅速转变。对我来说，这是衡量市场对央行言论接受程度的关键指标。如果EURCHF开始显著走低，那么Kalshi上“不降息”的合约可能被低估了。
I agree, it feels like a bit of a mixed message. EURCHF is interesting; it's resisting further declines, which could suggest some belief in Lagarde's stance, or just a lack of conviction for more franc strength. What are the Kalshi probabilities showing now for the June cut?
I agree that the market seems a bit skeptical. The EURCHF holding steady does suggest some anchoring, but the 'rate cut by June' contracts on Kalshi will be telling. It feels like a test of the ECB's resolve versus persistent inflation data.
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