Kalshi事件合约:它们在对冲方面真的更胜一筹吗?
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我仍然不完全相信Kalshi事件合约,例如针对$VNM或$EM的合约,与传统期权甚至期货相比,能为特定的短期尾部风险提供真正卓越或更有效的对冲机制。我的理解是,机构级别的对冲流动性尚未到位,导致点差过大,无法真正达到最佳效果。请改变我的看法。
由原文自动翻译 · 阅读原文 (English)
我仍然不完全相信Kalshi事件合约,例如针对$VNM或$EM的合约,与传统期权甚至期货相比,能为特定的短期尾部风险提供真正卓越或更有效的对冲机制。我的理解是,机构级别的对冲流动性尚未到位,导致点差过大,无法真正达到最佳效果。请改变我的看法。
Superior is a strong word, and I'd argue 'different' is probably more accurate for Kalshi. It's like comparing a bespoke tailor to an off-the-rack suit – one is highly specialized, the other more broadly applicable. Both have their place, but don't expect the bespoke option to be cheap or easy to find in every size.
I tend to agree. The idea is interesting, but without substantial liquidity and tighter spreads, it's hard to see how they'd consistently beat established markets for serious hedging. It feels more like a retail speculation venue right now.
You're not wrong about the liquidity, especially for institutional scale. The concept is interesting, but until the market depth significantly improves, it's more speculative trading than a robust hedging tool for most.
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