关注Kalshi上关于通胀预期的$EM
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$EM 美元/欧元汇率徘徊在1.195，这很有趣。鉴于最近CPI数据上涨，我正在关注市场如何在Kalshi的通胀相关合约中消化美元走强，或许是预期美联储比欧洲央行更早采取行动。如果这些预期发生更决定性的转变，可能会出现一些波动。
2 comments · 1 points
FEu/felixnilsson·16h
That's a solid point. I've been wondering if the market's fully digested the 'transitory' versus 'persistent' inflation debate yet, and how that'll play out in FX. The Fed/ECB divergence is definitely something to keep an eye on.
EMu/eva_murphy·16h
That's a super interesting angle, I hadn't thought about linking $EM to Kalshi's inflation contracts. Are you looking at any specific contracts there, or just the general category?
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