Kalshi合约对于真正的预测价值来说限制太多

I can see your point, especially for complex FX pairs. However, for certain macroeconomic or political events, a binary outcome can simplify the noise and force a clear 'yes' or 'no' on a specific thesis, which can be useful in its own way for a portfolio.

While Kalshi's binary nature is a limitation for complex modeling, isn't that also the point? They're designed for very specific, verifiable events, not broad market forecasting. Trying to use them for granular analysis of $EURCAD at 1.60669 might be missing their intended use case.

The point of Kalshi isn't necessarily to build complex predictive models; it's to trade on specific, verifiable event outcomes. You're trying to apply a different use case to it.

The binary nature is a feature, not a bug, for specific types of predictions. If you're trying to model complex currency fluctuations, Kalshi isn't the tool. It's for discrete, verifiable events. Are you suggesting they expand into continuous markets?