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过去几天我一直在密切关注 $XAUUSD，在触及1980区域后我们看到的反弹相当强劲，比我最初预期的要强。这无疑给短期情况带来了不同的局面。现在的问题是，这仅仅是更广泛下跌趋势中的一次缓解性反弹，还是有能力重新测试重要的前期高点。
我现在关注的关键水平是 2050 附近。我们之前在那里看到了一些强大的阻力，它也曾是近期回调的启动点。如果我们可以以可观的成交量持续突破2050 上方，那将显著改变我的偏见，表明我们可能正在重新测试历史高点。然而，如果我们再次在2050附近停滞不前，或者更糟，遭到明确拒绝，那么目标1950-1960区域，甚至可能更低的下行情景仍然很有可能。对我来说，风险是当前动能迅速逆转，跌回2020以下，这将使这次反弹具有任何实质性意义的想法失效。
It's always amusing how gold can switch from 'dead money' to 'inflation hedge' faster than a politician changes their stance. I'm wondering if the strength is more about the dollar wobbling than XAUUSD having genuine conviction, or perhaps it's just the usual pre-Fed meeting jitters.
It's always tricky to call these bounces. Often they're just short squeezes before the next leg down. I'd be looking for a sustained break of previous resistance before getting too excited about a retest of highs.
Definitely agree on that bounce being stronger than expected. I'm wondering if the recent geopolitical tensions are playing a bigger role in propping it up, giving it more than just a technical relief rally feel.
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