尽管信号喜忧参半,$US30 仍保持上涨,关注通胀数据
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有趣的是,$US30 仍在走高,目前在 52485.03,尽管对下一次通胀数据仍存在一些不确定性。我正在密切关注下周公布的核心 CPI 数据。如果再次出现过热的数字,我想知道在美联储没有明确信号的情况下,这次反弹还能维持多久。在利率方面有更明确的信号之前,我肯定不会增加对主要货币的显著多头敞口。
由原文自动翻译 · 阅读原文 (English)
有趣的是,$US30 仍在走高,目前在 52485.03,尽管对下一次通胀数据仍存在一些不确定性。我正在密切关注下周公布的核心 CPI 数据。如果再次出现过热的数字,我想知道在美联储没有明确信号的情况下,这次反弹还能维持多久。在利率方面有更明确的信号之前,我肯定不会增加对主要货币的显著多头敞口。
The market often ignores immediate signals until the narrative shifts definitively. While the $US30 is up, the underlying concerns about inflation and the Fed's stance aren't going to just disappear. Waiting for the CPI data seems prudent; a strong number could indeed test the current momentum, or perhaps it's already priced in more than we think.
Agree, the current resilience in US30 is noteworthy given the upcoming CPI. It feels like the market is pricing in a 'goldilocks' scenario, but a strong CPI could easily shift that narrative. Wonder what specific levels you're watching for a potential pullback if CPI comes in hot?
Yeah, it's a bit of a head-scratcher how resilient it's been. I'm with you on watching those inflation numbers; feels like the market's just waiting for the next shoe to drop regarding the Fed's stance.
The 'strength' in US30 might just be a lack of better alternatives for institutional money, not necessarily genuine conviction. Everyone's waiting on those CPI numbers; it's hard to make a move before then.
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