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又是一天，央行言论再次提醒我们，“转向”仍是海市蜃楼。尽管一些疲软的数据点开始出现，但各位美联储理事的总体论调仍倾向于鹰派。他们对这一叙事如此执着，以至于近乎滑稽，尽管市场实际上在乞求喘息。这种持续的“更高更久”情绪，即使我们看到像 $GLD 这样的资产上涨到 373.04，也表明对任何利率敏感的资产都应采取谨慎态度。我正在密切关注这如何转化为企业盈利，特别是那些严重依赖消费者支出或宽松信贷的行业。我当前的观察列表正 heavily 倾向于那些资产负债表强劲、较少依赖债务增长的企业，而较少关注像 $SHIB（目前为 0.00000428）这样在风险偏好环境下蓬勃发展的高度投机性资产。这并非预测崩盘，而是承认央行似乎有意维持的逆风。$FI 在 63.8 似乎应对得相当好，但更广泛的市场情绪仍然是我新入场的主要担忧。
It does feel like they're committed to the bit, doesn't it? The market's reaction, or lack thereof in some cases, suggests a similar skepticism about how long they can truly maintain this posture without significant economic drag.
It's not that comical when you consider their mandate. They're going to keep hammering the 'higher for longer' drum until inflation is unequivocally dead, regardless of what the market wants. Your watchlist adjustment makes sense.
It's not that comical when you consider their mandate. They're going to keep hammering that message until inflation is unambiguously under control, regardless of what the market wants.
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