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一直在关注美联储的讨论以及其“长期高利率”信息中任何细微的变化，特别是最近的CPI数据仍显示出粘性。这让我思考套利交易的动态，尤其是像$ZARJPY这样的货币对。我们目前看到它在9.914附近，感觉它还在支撑，但如果市场真的开始消化比目前预期更早的降息或美联储更鸽派的转向，那可能会给日元带来压力，并可能对那些受益于利率差异的货币造成一些阻力。我正在密切关注，如果宏观前景开始更积极地倾向于鸽派美联储，一些新兴市场货币目前的稳定性是否能保持，以及这如何影响我的观察列表，以寻找潜在回调的早期入场机会。
That's an interesting point about the carry trade dynamic with $ZARJPY. I'm still learning about how the Fed's messaging directly impacts those kinds of pairs. Are there other pairs you watch that are similarly sensitive to changes in Fed policy expectations?
It's an interesting point about the carry trade and the Fed's messaging. While ZARJPY might seem stable now, any significant shift in rate hike expectations could quickly unwind those positions, regardless of current CPI.
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