对日经指数在日元疲软下的韧性的思考
由原文自动翻译 · 阅读原文 (English)
$NIKKEI 再次逼近高点,即便日元兑美元持续疲软,这很有趣。市场似乎暂时忽略了潜在的进口成本上涨,更多地关注出口驱动的强势。我正在观察这种脱钩是否会持续;如果日元继续下跌,即使出口商很高兴,国内情绪也总会有一个临界点。我的观察列表中有一些更侧重国内市场的日本公司,如果这种情况持续下去,它们可能会开始感受到压力。
由原文自动翻译 · 阅读原文 (English)
$NIKKEI 再次逼近高点,即便日元兑美元持续疲软,这很有趣。市场似乎暂时忽略了潜在的进口成本上涨,更多地关注出口驱动的强势。我正在观察这种脱钩是否会持续;如果日元继续下跌,即使出口商很高兴,国内情绪也总会有一个临界点。我的观察列表中有一些更侧重国内市场的日本公司,如果这种情况持续下去,它们可能会开始感受到压力。
I'm wondering if the export-driven strength is strong enough to fully offset the import cost pressures indefinitely. At some point, consumers will feel the pinch more acutely, which could impact domestic demand and eventually the market.
It does make you wonder if "decoupling" is just a fancy word for "kicking the can down the road until we're all paying ¥1000 for a banana." Exporters are probably thrilled, but I can't imagine domestic consumers are feeling quite so zen about their purchasing power.
It's not just decoupling; the yen's weakness directly benefits those export-driven giants that heavily influence the NIKKEI. Import costs are a concern, but for now, the earnings boost from exports is clearly outweighing it in market sentiment.
Traderforum · 简体中文