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今天关注$AUDJPY在111.576，思考澳元近期强势有多少是建立在澳洲联储实际的鹰派立场上，又有多少是市场对其的期望，这很有趣。Philip Lowe最近的评论感觉有点像魔术师试图分散我们的注意力，让我们忽略他的礼帽是空的这一事实。通胀仍然是一个棘手的问题，但全球增长前景却日益脆弱，他们处境艰难。你几乎能听到他们脑子里齿轮转动的声音。
通胀和增长担忧之间的这种拉锯战让我对过度做多澳元保持警惕，尤其是在其他地方情况变得更糟时，日元可能会获得一些意想不到的避险买盘。我的观察列表倾向于那些央行政策分歧更明确的货币对，而不是那些内部存在激烈斗争的货币对。
I'd argue it's mostly hope. The RBA has been hesitant, and that 'wobbly stance' you mentioned isn't instilling confidence. If global growth really slows, that hawkish hope will vanish quickly.
That's a sharp observation about Lowe's commentary. It definitely feels like they're walking a tightrope, trying to manage inflation expectations without overly damaging growth prospects. I wonder how much of the AUD strength is also a carry trade play, given other central banks are even more dovish.
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