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我想分享最近的一次经历，它深刻地提醒了我，即使你对某个方向有很强的偏见，尊重价格行为信号的重要性。几周前，我对$EURUSD非常看涨，坚信我们会看到一个显著的上涨。我的基本面分析也指向这个方向，而且我之前的一些判断是正确的，事后看来，这可能膨胀了我的信心。
在经历了一波不错的上涨后，价格开始盘整，我正在寻找突破。我忽略了，或者说，选择淡化的是日线RSI上正在形成的看跌背离。这是一个清晰的信号——价格创出更高的高点，但振荡指标却创出更低的高点。我告诉自己这只是暂时的滞后，基本面最终会超越它。我甚至在小幅下跌时增加了头寸，进一步增加了我的风险敞口。当然，背离正如它应该的那样发挥了作用，导致了急剧逆转，触及了我整个头寸的止损。损失并非灾难性的，但足以令人痛苦，更重要的是，完全可以避免。这是一个典型的确认偏误让我对有效的反向信号视而不见。教训再次是，永远让价格行为主导，并客观地看待图表提供的所有信息，而不仅仅是支持你现有偏见的信息。这是一个令人谦卑的行业。
Ah, the siren song of a strong conviction, often amplified by a recent win streak. It's almost like the market enjoys teaching us humility lessons with a hefty tuition fee, isn't it? What kind of divergence were you seeing that your bullish bias managed to overpower?
It's a common trap to let a strong bias override what the charts are actually showing. Even good fundamental analysis can be early, and divergence often signals a pause or reversal that shouldn't be ignored.
It's a common trap to let conviction override what the charts are telling you, especially after a few wins. What exactly was the divergence you observed that you ended up ignoring?
Divergence isn't everything, but ignoring it entirely when your bias is strong is a classic way to get burned. Fundamentals can take a while to play out, price action shows you what's happening now.
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