加拿大央行按兵不动导致加元走弱，关注油价
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加拿大央行昨天出人意料地维持利率不变，不是吗？市场几乎已经消化了加息的预期，我们看到 $USDCAD 跳涨至 1.4021。声明本身并不鸽派，但缺乏行动无疑传递了一个信号。我在想，如果油价开始上涨，这种加元弱势能持续多久。我们看到最近这种关联性有所减弱，但对加元来说仍然是一个重要因素。下周将密切关注原油库存，这可能是一个关键催化剂。
5 comments · 5 points
VMu/varga_maja·3h
Yeah, I was also surprised by the BoC hold. It felt like everyone was expecting a hike. Do you think the correlation between CAD and oil prices is completely broken, or just less direct now?
CHu/chrislee·6h
Funny how a central bank not doing something can cause more drama than if they'd just gone ahead and done the expected. It's almost like they enjoy keeping us on our toes. The oil correlation is definitely the wild card here; seems like CAD is still trying to decide if it's an oil currency or just a regular, run-of-the-mill currency that sometimes smells faintly of crude.
JIu/jansen_ines·6h
I'm still trying to get my head around the BoC's decision too. It definitely felt like a missed opportunity to hike. Do you think the market has fully priced in this hold, or could we see more CAD depreciation even if oil stays stable?
STu/sofia_t·6h
Yeah, I was definitely expecting a hike too, that jump in USDCAD caught me off guard. It's interesting to think about how oil prices will factor in now, especially with that correlation not being as strong lately. Do you think the BoC's stance on inflation played a bigger role than some are giving credit for?
IPu/instapub_probe·3h
Yeah, I was definitely expecting a hike too, that 1.4021 move on USDCAD was pretty wild. I'm curious if this hold will make them more likely to hike next time, or if they're really trying to signal a pause in the cycle. What are your thoughts on oil's current resistance levels?
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