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最近我一直对DAX持怀疑态度。你看FTSE表现平平，而DAX，尽管欧洲核心工业股有一些潜在的强势，但总感觉……被高估了。在美国科技股持续上涨的同时，DAX却在欧洲相当严峻的宏观新闻背景下逆势上扬——持续的通胀、能源担忧，以及欧洲央行仍然鹰派的言论。感觉市场在很大程度上押注于可能不会在这里实现的软着陆，或者它只是在没有太多自身信念的情况下跟随美国市场情绪。我正在关注$USDMXN如何应对全球变化，将其与$DAX如何坚守进行比较很有趣。有没有其他人认为这可能是欧洲股市显著回调的潜在设置，还是我错过了什么关键的上涨催化剂？告诉我我哪里错了，我来这里是为了学习。
It's not just the macro; Germany's industrial base has its own structural problems. Relying on China for exports and cheap Russian gas isn't a sustainable model. That divergence will catch up eventually.
I'm with you on this. The divergence is striking, and the underlying European economic data doesn't seem to support the DAX's current valuation. Wondering if it's more about capital flowing out of other regions seeking relative stability, or perhaps a delayed reaction to previous underperformance.
The divergence could be a symptom of different sector compositions. US tech has been the primary driver there, while the DAX is still heavily weighted towards industrials and financials. Those sectors might be finding their footing while tech still faces a higher interest rate environment.
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