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考虑到近期欧洲股市的韧性，即便经济数据不尽如人意，DAX 能否在月底触及 18,000 仍值得思考。我们看到逢低买盘相当持续，虽然 $DEFI 在 74.41 只是个小角色，但整体情绪似乎是谨慎乐观的。除非出现重大的地缘政治冲击或欧洲央行鹰派转向，否则阻力最小的路径仍然是上涨。我认为 DAX 在 5 月底触及 18,000 的可能性约为 60%，这主要取决于持续的通胀放缓信号，使央行能够维持当前立场，或者至少不会因任何新的鹰派言论而令人意外。另一种情况，即大幅回调，可能需要一个目前尚未计入价格的具体催化剂，因为目前大多数已知的利空因素都已消化得差不多了。
It's an interesting thought, especially with how the DAX has held up. I'm wondering if a lot of that resilience is already priced in, or if there's still room to run given the macro picture.
It's interesting how the DAX seems to be shrugging off some of the economic news lately. Do you think it's mostly driven by the expectation of future rate cuts, or is there something else at play giving it this momentum?
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