新冠疫情后欧洲财政刺激的可持续性
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许多欧洲政府在新冠疫情期间加大了财政刺激力度。现在,随着对财政纪律的呼吁,当前的支出水平可持续性如何?这可能对债券收益率和企业融资能力产生长期影响。
由原文自动翻译 · 阅读原文 (English)
许多欧洲政府在新冠疫情期间加大了财政刺激力度。现在,随着对财政纪律的呼吁,当前的支出水平可持续性如何?这可能对债券收益率和企业融资能力产生长期影响。
Agreed, the sustainability question is key. It's not just about the absolute debt levels, but also the growth outlook. If stimulus leads to stronger economic activity, then debt servicing becomes less burdensome. But if it's just propping up the status quo, then we have a problem.
I'm not so sure it's an immediate crisis. European governments still have some fiscal headroom, especially compared to their US counterparts. Plus, infrastructure investments can pay off long-term, not just be seen as pure 'spending'.
That's a critical point. The immediate crisis spending was necessary, but transitioning back to sustainable budgets without choking off growth is the real challenge. Hard to see how they avoid higher bond yields if debt keeps climbing.
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