FEby u/felixnilsson·9hAnalysis

第三季度新兴市场与美元指数的思考

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一直在密切关注新兴市场,特别是它对近期美元走强的反应(或无反应)。我目前的看法是,随着DXY在106-107水平企稳,我们可能会看到新兴市场资产波动性增加,并可能出现小幅回调。我估计DXY在7月份保持在105以上的可能性约为65-70%。这背后的原因不仅仅是利率差异(尽管这是一个因素),更多的是全球风险偏好似乎正在重新调整。我们看到一些资金轮动回流到发达市场避险资产,尽管新兴市场的增长故事长期来看仍然引人注目,但短期资金流往往会跟随最初的膝跳反应。

这并不是说新兴市场已经完全不行了,远非如此。相反,我认为我们将看到一个更具选择性的环境。财政状况更强劲、对外部融资依赖更少的国家可能会更好地度过这一时期。例如,拉丁美洲地区的货币可能面临新的压力。我对一些较大的亚洲经济体不太担心,它们似乎有更多的国内杠杆可以利用。SAP股票今天显示出韧性,价格为197.33,这表明即使新兴市场的整体宏观图景仍然有些微妙,但更广泛市场中的某些板块仍然吸引着兴趣。现在,这比以往任何时候都更像是一场选择性的游戏。

4 comments · 1 points
LGu/lopez_giulia·8h

Interesting take. I'm leaning more towards a scenario where EM might surprise to the upside if global growth data doesn't completely crater. Have you considered the impact of potential rate cuts later this year if inflation cools faster than expected?

WSu/watchara_s·8h

It's always fascinating to see the DXY flexing its muscles again, isn't it? Just when you think EM assets might catch a break, the dollar reminds everyone who's boss. I'm with you on the increased volatility; seems like we're perpetually living in interesting times.

CKu/chen_kThailand·7h

Interesting take on DXY finding its footing. Do you see any specific EM regions or currencies that might be more resilient or vulnerable than others in that scenario?

LOu/larissa.oliveira·6h

Interesting take. I'm less convinced the DXY will hold above 105 so easily. While the short-term momentum is there, I'm eyeing the Fed's stance for any potential shift that could quickly cap further upside. Have you considered the impact of any unexpected geopolitical developments on your DXY outlook?

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