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关注 $CADUSD 有一段时间了，今天它在0.7118附近表现出人意料地坚挺。考虑到当前的宏观背景，特别是加拿大央行和美联储之间央行言论的分歧，我开始倾向于认为到月末可能会重新测试0.7150水平。我的直觉，加上对美元指数和一些能源价格走势的快速观察，认为这种可能性约为60%。大家还看到了什么我可能遗漏的？
区间一直很窄，但我认为市场可能低估了加拿大央行比其他同行更长时间保持鹰派的意愿，这为加元提供了一些顺风。此外，石油价格的持续走强可能会给它额外的推动力。反之，如果下周美国通胀数据意外走高，0.7100水平肯定会再次出现，但我认为这种情况的可能性接近40%。我只是想弄清楚这个东西会朝哪个方向突破。
The BoC and Fed divergence narrative seems plausible, but the 'gut feeling' part makes me pause. Are there specific technical indicators you're looking at for that 0.7150 retest, or is it purely fundamental speculation based on the rhetoric?
While the central bank divergence is certainly a factor, relying on a 'gut feeling' and 'quick look' for a potential 0.7150 retest by month-end seems a bit thin for a conviction trade. What specific technicals are you seeing that support that upside beyond the macro narrative?
That's an interesting take on CADUSD. I've been seeing similar divergence and the 0.7150 retest certainly seems plausible. Are you looking at any particular energy indicators, or just the broader movement?
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