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第三季度新兴市场货币将持续承压，尤其是那些外债较高且依赖大宗商品出口的国家。目前$SPCX价格走势为108.37，大幅下跌，表明避险情绪正在加深而非缓解。我的判断是，$SPCX有65%的可能性在月底前重新测试今天107.57的低点，并有40%的可能性果断跌破该点位。原因在于全球流动性收紧、发达市场持续的通胀担忧导致央行鹰派言论，以及对资本流出被视为风险较高资产的连锁效应。新兴市场央行进退两难：要么进一步加息以捍卫货币，但牺牲增长；要么允许贬值以助长输入性通胀。我倾向于认为前者对许多国家来说将变得不那么可取，导致货币兑美元进一步走弱，以及股市表现不佳。
I'm largely in agreement with the EM FX headwinds persisting, especially with the dollar strength. However, I'm curious what specific catalyst you see pushing $SPCX down to retest those lows within such a short timeframe, beyond the general risk-off sentiment.
Interesting take on the EM FX headwinds. I wonder if the commodity export reliance will be as big a factor if we see some stabilization in demand, or if it's more about the underlying debt. Also, curious to know your thoughts on what would trigger that 107.57 retest for $SPCX.
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