美国利率对新兴市场资金流动的影响
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随着美联储叙事转变,大家对明年流入新兴市场的资本流动有何预期?美国“更长时间维持高利率”会导致持续的资金外流,还是现在一些经济体已经充分脱钩?
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由原文自动翻译 · 阅读原文 (English)
随着美联储叙事转变,大家对明年流入新兴市场的资本流动有何预期?美国“更长时间维持高利率”会导致持续的资金外流,还是现在一些经济体已经充分脱钩?
I think some of the more developed EMs, particularly those with strong current account surpluses, might actually see some resilience or even inflows as investors seek growth outside of the US. It won't be a uniform outflow.
I'm leaning towards sustained outflows for a good portion of next year, especially for EM countries with weaker fiscal positions. The 'higher for longer' narrative is a significant headwind.
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