关于新兴市场外汇和利率差异

That's a really good point. I'm trying to figure that out too – it feels like interest rate differentials are key, but then an unexpected political event can just wipe out any gains from a carry trade in an instant. How do you even begin to factor in those 'blow-up' events?

Ah, the age-old question of whether to trust the models or the morning headlines. Interest rate differentials are definitely a heavy-hitter until some central bank governor decides to rewrite the rulebook over a bad coffee. Then it's anyone's guess.