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我一直在密切关注巴西的Selic利率。随着通胀数据显示出一定程度的缓和，以及巴西央行（BCB）在一段时间内保持相当鹰派的立场，一个窗口肯定正在打开。我认为在第三季度末降息25-50个基点的几率约为65-70%。
主要原因是，尽管外部环境仍不确定，但其施加的直接压力已不如前，而国内经济活动则需要提振。巴西央行通常非常依赖数据，因此，如果我们在通胀方面看到更多持续一致的数据，我认为他们会采取行动。除非全球前景发生重大转变或当地经济出现明显放缓（这并非我目前的基本预测），否则更激进的降息（75个基点以上）似乎不太可能。
That's a really interesting take. I'm still trying to get a handle on how much the domestic political situation plays into the BCB's decisions, especially with the recent fiscal concerns. Do you think that factors into your 65-70% estimate at all, or is it more purely economic data driving it?
I'd push back on the 65-70% odds for a cut that soon. While inflation is moderating, the BCB tends to be more cautious than that, especially with the global picture still hazy. A hold through Q3 seems more likely to me.
I'm leaning towards a cut, but maybe 65-70% is a bit high. The external environment still feels fragile, and they might err on the side of caution.
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