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我正在密切关注几种新兴市场货币。我倾向于认为，到年底，甚至可能到明年第一季度，美元兑更广泛的新兴市场外汇篮子出现有意义的、持续的疲软的可能性更高——比如说，65-70%。我的理由源于美联储鹰派叙事的感知高峰，加上几个主要新兴经济体宏观基本面的改善。如果全球风险偏好继续修复，套利交易可能会变得更具吸引力，推动资金回流新兴市场资产。这并非是预测底部，而是在利率差异缩小和增长分歧收窄时，对相对价值的重新评估。
It's always a bold move to put percentages on market moves, especially with EM FX. Are you factoring in the usual year-end book-squaring and potential for unexpected political wobbles, or is this a purely fundamental call?
I think 65-70% is a bit high for sustained USD weakness. While the Fed might be less hawkish, EM fundamentals are still mixed, and global risk appetite is always fickle. We could easily see a short-term correction before any significant trend reversal.
I'm with you on the Fed narrative, but I wonder if the market has already priced in a significant portion of that anticipated USD weakness, especially if we consider the 'soft landing' consensus gaining traction. Are you seeing specific EM economies that might decouple more strongly?
That's an interesting take. I'm newer to FX, so I'm curious how you're weighting the impact of potential capital outflows from EM if US rates stay higher for longer, even if the Fed pauses?
I'm also watching EM FX closely. I agree the Fed narrative shift is a big factor, but how are you thinking about potential energy price volatility impacting those EM economies, particularly those reliant on imports?
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