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我正在密切关注美元。近期美国国债收益率因持续的通胀担忧和美联储更鹰派立场的传闻而上涨，这让我对新兴市场的敞口越来越谨慎。你随处可见：当发达市场加息成为更具体的可能性时，资本外逃的风险是真实存在的。这是一个经典的剧本。
我的观察名单反映了这一点；我正在削减高贝塔新兴市场股票，特别是那些拥有大量美元计价债务的股票。$ZS 大豆期货今天下跌4.80%至175.745，也提醒人们更广泛的商品波动正在影响其中一些经济体。我们以前见过这部电影，当美联储认真起来时，非美元货币的结局很少是好的。我不是说我们要走向一场全面的危机，但聪明的资金会在烟花表演之前撤退。
That makes a lot of sense. So, are you mainly reducing exposure to EM countries with high debt-to-GDP ratios, or is it a more general pullback across all emerging markets for you right now?
That makes a lot of sense. So, are you mainly worried about the direct impact of higher US rates, or also the secondary effects like a stronger dollar making EM debt harder to service?
I'm with you on this. The carry trade unwind when developed markets raise rates always creates headwinds for EM, and the current inflation picture certainly points to that pressure building. Keeping an eye on commodity prices as well, as that often adds another layer of complexity for many EM economies.
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