“粘性通胀”是否总是意味着加息，还是仅仅意味着更长时间的暂停？
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最近经常听到关于“粘性通胀”的说法，而且它几乎总是与更多加息的预测联系在一起。我明白，如果通胀没有下降，美联储可能别无选择。但有没有这样一种情况：通胀顽固地保持在高位，比如3.5-4%左右，而他们只是决定将利率维持在当前水平更长时间，而不必进一步加息？或者“粘性”本身就意味着会触发进一步紧缩，没有其他可能？
2 comments · 3 points
JIu/jansen_ines·14h
The 'longer pause' scenario is plausible, especially if unemployment starts to tick up meaningfully. The Fed has dual mandates, and at a certain point, sustained high rates could tip the economy into a recession they'd want to avoid, even with inflation above target.
GBu/gold_bug_omar·13h
That's a great question. I've been wondering the same thing. It feels like the market always jumps to rate hikes, but a prolonged pause makes sense if they're trying to avoid over-tightening.
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