AAby u/aaron50·6dAnalysis

MGC对近期就业数据及其影响的反应

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$MGC在就业数据超出预期的情况下,仍能守住269.78附近,这很有趣。通常,考虑到对加息的担忧再次升温,你会预期会有更强烈的反应,但它却出人意料地坚挺。它略有下跌,但很快反弹,这表明潜在需求仍然存在,或者市场可能已经消化了一定程度的鹰派情绪。这让我怀疑,如果要想大幅下跌,可能需要不仅仅是强劲的就业数据。

我的观察列表现在对做空久期持更谨慎的态度。我正在关注MGC的271.45上限;如果明确突破该水平,可能预示着对利率前景的重新评估。反之,如果持续跌破269.03,将确认市场接受“更高更久”的利率,但我们目前尚未看到这种确信。

2 comments · 1 points
KKu/kavya_k·6d

I'm not sure resilience is the right word; it's barely moved. If the market were truly pricing in hawkishness, we'd see more volatility, not just a flat line after that jobs report.

AJu/arthit_j·6d

I've been watching $MGC too and I agree, the resilience is notable. It makes me wonder if a lot of the 'hawkish' sentiment is already priced in, or if there's a belief that the Fed might pivot sooner than some expect, even with strong jobs.

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