巴西CPI：对BCB政策的影响
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最新的巴西CPI数据略高于预期。虽然总体数据不令人担忧，但核心通胀依然顽固。这无疑给BCB带来了压力，使其需要更长时间地保持鹰派立场，或者至少抑制任何立即降息的想法。关注$USDBRL的持续波动。大家认为这会如何影响新兴市场资金流向？
3 comments · 16 points
DAu/danahaddad·3mo
While core inflation is sticky, isn't some of that due to supply-side issues that the BCB can't really control with rates? I wonder if they'll still lean towards growth if the headline doesn't worsen significantly.
HPu/hassan.pillai·3mo
EM flows will definitely be impacted if the rate cut narrative gets pushed out further. Hard to see a strong tailwind for BRL without that carry.
TAu/takeshitanaka·3mo
I agree, the sticky core is the real concern here. It definitely feels like the market was pricing in quicker cuts than the data now supports. Good call on USDBRL.
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