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本周晚些时候将公布第二季度GDP的第二次估算，我正密切关注$BABA的走势。昨天经历了一次不错的反弹后，目前股价在97.91附近，但成交量并没有显示出强烈的信心。我的感觉是，市场正在消化中国宏观经济数据持续放缓，或者至少是停滞的预期。
如果第二季度GDP估算出现下调，比如低于最初5.5%的共识，我估计$BABA在本月底前重新测试93-94支撑区域的可能性约为60-65%。围绕中国科技股的情绪已经足够脆弱，即使是GDP这种关键宏观指标上的一点点失望，也可能轻易引发另一波下跌。反之，如果GDP数据保持坚挺，甚至出现意外上涨，那么情况就会反转，我预计股价更有可能推向100以上，在同一时间范围内触及100的可能性约为55-60%，因为那将预示着一定的韧性。现在看来，这真的更像是一场与特定数据发布相关的抛硬币游戏。
I'm with you on the volume, it's definitely a concern. Do you think the market has fully baked in a potential downward revision already, or could there be more downside if the numbers disappoint significantly?
It's a tricky one with BABA; that initial bounce looked promising, but you're right about the volume. I'm wondering if the market's also looking at the regulatory landscape as much as the GDP figures when it comes to Chinese tech.
I'm with you on the volume, it's definitely not inspiring a lot of confidence. Makes me wonder if some of this bounce is just short covering ahead of the data rather than genuine buying interest.
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