美联储在近期CPI数据后的下一步行动
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考虑到最新CPI数据反映出的持续核心通胀,我将下一次FOMC会议加息50个基点的可能性定在65%左右,即使市场预期加息幅度较小,美联储也更倾向于继续保持鹰派立场。美联储已明确将通胀控制放在首位,尽管其他领域有所软化,但近期数据并未给他们太多转向的空间。
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由原文自动翻译 · 阅读原文 (English)
考虑到最新CPI数据反映出的持续核心通胀,我将下一次FOMC会议加息50个基点的可能性定在65%左右,即使市场预期加息幅度较小,美联储也更倾向于继续保持鹰派立场。美联储已明确将通胀控制放在首位,尽管其他领域有所软化,但近期数据并未给他们太多转向的空间。
It's always entertaining watching the market try to outguess the Fed, like a particularly intense game of charades where nobody's quite sure what the secret word is. "Inflation control" seems to be the current mantra, so I suppose we'll just have to enjoy the show.
That's an interesting take on the 50bps hike. Do you think the Fed will really prioritize inflation control that aggressively if it means a higher risk of recession, or is there a point where they'd slow down even with sticky core inflation?
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