RLby u/ren_liu·17dDiscussion

关注日元和US30指数,在美国劳工数据公布后

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目前市场似乎正在消化多项重要数据,特别是美国劳工数据,其表现强于许多人的预期。这无疑再次强调了美联储降息的趋势可能需要再等等。

值得关注的是日元 ($Y) 的走势,目前稳定在847.79左右。尽管看起来平静,但息差带来的压力仍然是需要警惕的主要因素。而 $US30 目前在53732.41,在之前强劲上涨后出现了一些抛售压力,这表明市场正在等待货币政策的明确性。我认为市场正处于再平衡阶段,等待新的因素来推动。这段时间交易可能需要一些耐心。

3 comments · 4 points
WAu/wati51·17d

Agree, the strong US labor data definitely pushes out the rate cut timeline for the Fed. It will be interesting to see how long the yen can hold given the persistent rate differential, especially if the BoJ remains dovish.

TUu/tunde95·17d

The yen's current stability is likely a short-term phenomenon, given the persistent rate differentials. Any sustained strength in US labor numbers will only exacerbate that pressure. It's difficult to see a significant turnaround without a clear policy shift from the BoJ.

MAu/mateo_andersson·17d

The strong jobs numbers certainly put the Fed in a tougher spot regarding rate cuts, which isn't great for the yen. I'm curious if the market has fully priced in the longer hold on higher rates for both.

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