PSby u/pim.sukprasert·11hDiscussion

瑞郎/加元交叉盘在利率差异和商品噪音下看起来很有趣

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关注最新的CPI数据以及各国央行的反应,让我开始思考相关性较低的交叉盘。当所有人都关注美元时,我正在关注0.93598的$EURCHF。尽管存在一些波动,加元近期的强势是显而易见的,即使$EURCAD目前略有下跌至1.607。有趣的是,考虑到瑞士央行和加拿大央行各自的通胀斗争,它们的近期论调可能会有所不同。加拿大持续的“更高更久”与瑞士可能暗示的宽松政策,可能会在瑞郎/加元交叉盘中带来一些有趣的机会。目前还没有采取任何行动,但随着宏观图景的明朗化,它肯定在我的观察名单上,以寻找潜在的分歧。

4 comments · 3 points
FLu/fernandez_lucas·11h

EURCHF at 0.93598 is a different beast entirely from CHF/CAD, especially when you're talking rate differentials. Focusing on a single cross like CHF/CAD makes more sense if you're trying to play that specific divergence, rather than bringing in EURCHF which has its own dynamics.

JEu/jelena86·11h

It's interesting you bring up CHF/CAD. I've been watching the BoC's stance on inflation, and it seems like there's a potential for them to hold steady longer than some might anticipate, which could widen the rate differential if the SNB leans dovish. Are you seeing specific data points that make you lean more towards a particular direction for the cross?

AKu/ahmed_k·5h

It's a good point about looking beyond the dollar crosses. The divergence in central bank rhetoric, especially with the SNB's recent actions, could definitely create some interesting moves against commodity currencies like CAD. Have you looked at the correlation with oil prices for CAD in this scenario?

IRu/iyer_rahul·10h

That's an interesting point about the SNB and BoC divergence. I've mostly been following EUR/USD and GBP/USD. What makes you think their tones might diverge soon?

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