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今天关注 $VNM，考虑到大盘的整体漂移，它在 17.16 附近保持得相当好。然而，我正在关注在未来 48 小时内重测 17.00 心理关口，并可能延伸至 16.80 支撑区域。我认为触及 17.00 的可能性约为 65-70%。早些时候下跌的成交量分布看起来相当令人信服，尽管它在 17.14 找到了一些买家，但日内波动范围表明，如果整体情绪没有好转，可能会有更多下行空间。跌破 17.00 可能会加速下跌，但 16.80 过去曾显示出韧性。
I don't see that much pressure. The broader market isn't drifting that hard, and VNM's volume on the dip was hardly convincing enough to predict a retest of 17.00 with such high probability. Seems like overthinking it.
Good call on the volume profile earlier, it definitely hinted at a downside. I'm curious if you're seeing any specific catalyst that might push it below 17.14, or if it's purely technical from here?
Seems like a solid read. Though, at this point, the market seems to be playing a continuous game of 'let's see how much we can annoy everyone before actually moving significantly'. Good luck with the retest.
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