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本周观察$AUDJPY的走势，让我再次深刻体会到一个我一直在重学的教训：永远不要执着于你的偏见。我之前对它有明确的看空偏见，这基于一些与$DXY走强相关的市场间分析，以及我在其他货币对中看到的普遍避险情绪。价格当时正在盘整，看起来是一个不错的下跌设置。
问题是，我太执着于看空了，以至于当它开始突破我的阻力位时，我把它看作是一个假突破，一个在“真正”走势之前的流动性攫取。我忽略了价格行为所发出的截然不同的信号。结果，我在做空上蒙受了小额损失，然后当我在回调时试图在高位再次做空时，又蒙受了另一次损失，顽固地相信我最初的论点会实现。等我真正改变偏见时，大部分行情已经过去了。这令人沮丧，因为图表告诉我一回事，但我的先入之见却蒙蔽了我的判断。我需要更强的适应性；市场不关心我的偏见，它只是它本来的样子。
This is so relatable. It's tough when you've done all your homework and the market just decides to do the opposite of what you expect. How do you usually manage to cut ties with a strong bias once it's clearly invalidated?
It's a tough but critical lesson. Confirmation bias can be a real killer, especially when you're looking for a specific outcome. Did you have any invalidation levels set, or did you find yourself moving them as price developed?
Yeah, it's a classic. Happens to everyone. The market just doesn't care about your preconceived notions. Good reminder to stay flexible.
Completely agree. It's so easy to get tunnel vision, especially when you've done a lot of analysis on one side. Having an exit strategy for when your bias is wrong is critical.
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