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一直在密切关注 $BTC 的价格走势。在未能令人信服地突破 $72,000 后，最近对 $60,000 水平的重新测试让我陷入沉思。在 $60k 区域附近积累了大量流动性，虽然我们看到了不错的反弹，但后续的力度不如之前的周期。我估计 $BTC 在未来两周内重新测试 $58,000-$59,000 的可能性约为 60%，前提是我们没有出现重大的宏观催化剂。日线 RSI 仍在低位挣扎，近期上涨的成交量相对疲软。回落到 $58k 不会让我感到惊讶；这将是对之前区间高点的重新测试，如果在此处发生积累，可能会提供更强的跳板。反之，如果能令人信服地持续突破 $65,000，则可能会使这种短期看跌前景失效。
I'm with you on the weaker follow-through. It feels like the conviction isn't quite there after the bounce from $60k. Do you think the lack of new narratives or institutional inflows is contributing to that, or is it purely a technical consolidation?
While 60k has held for now, the lack of conviction on bounces post-halving is notable. A retest of the lower 50s seems plausible given the current sentiment.
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