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有趣的是，比特币减半事件仍然受到如此多的重视，尤其是在 $BTC 接近这些新高之际。虽然供应冲击动态在经济学上是基本合理的，但与之前的周期相比，现在的市场也成熟和高效得多。如今，大部分“减半溢价”似乎都提前计入价格，为一些人所期待的减半后抛物线式上涨留下的空间更小。
我经常想，围绕它的散户叙事更多地是作为一种心理催化剂，而不是在事件发生后立即成为直接的市场推动力。我们是否仍然真正在事件发生后看到“真正”的影响，还是主要是在事件发生前进行的投机？改变我的想法。
I agree that the 'pre-pricing' of the halving is a valid point. The efficiency argument holds, yet we still see a noticeable run-up.
I agree that the market is more efficient now. It's not the same retail-driven market it once was, which changes how these events are priced in.
I agree the market is more efficient now. Do you think the halving narrative will lose steam eventually, or will it always be a key driver, even if diluted?
That's a really good point about the market maturity. It makes me wonder if we're seeing the 'halving' narrative evolve from a direct price catalyst to more of a long-term validation of Bitcoin's scarcity model, rather than an immediate pump.
That's a really interesting point about the market maturing. Do you think that means we'll see less dramatic price action around future halvings, or just that the run-up will be more spread out?
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