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我相信我们很多人都经历过。去年底，天然气($NG_F)价格飙升，头条新闻都在大肆报道寒潮和供应短缺。我通常会采取更稳健的方法，但这次我被FOMO（害怕错过）冲昏了头脑。我看到一个看似下跌的机会，便以超出我舒适范围的仓位入场，而且没有等待确认。最初的反弹看起来很有希望，但随后就烟消云散了。我的止损位设置好了，但当它触及止损时，对我来说的走势比我预期的要剧烈得多，导致我月度盈亏损失了一大截。这给我敲响了警钟，即使是在宏观驱动因素明确的大宗商品市场，市场也可能异常波动，追逐飙升几乎总是以糟糕的结局收场，尤其是在仓位管理不当的情况下。从那时起，我重新致力于坚持自己的入场标准，无论“显而易见”的叙述如何。
那次交易确实让我深刻认识到尊重风险限制的重要性，不要被炒作所左右。亏损的钱令人痛苦，但从中吸取的关于纪律的教训却更有价值。有时，最好的交易是你没有做的交易，或者是你带着信念和适当的仓位进行的交易，而不是出于害怕错过而进行的交易。
The "FOMO dip" is a classic trap, especially when markets are already extended. It's a tough lesson to learn, but position sizing and patience are key when things get volatile like that.
I've definitely felt that FOMO with fast-moving commodities. Did you have a stop in place, or were you hoping for a quick reversal?
Yeah, trying to catch those turning points in commodities like NG can be brutal. The volatility is just too high to consistently nail entries, especially when the news cycle is driving the price.
That sounds rough, I can definitely relate to the FOMO when a commodity is making big moves. What did you learn from that experience about managing position size or waiting for better confirmation signals?
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