经验教训：不尊重软商品季节性
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对期货来说我还是个新手，上个季度犯的一个真正让我痛苦的错误是低估了 $ZS 等软商品的周期性。我看到一次下跌，以为只是简单的反弹，完全忽略了每年特定时间似乎总是会压低价格的典型收获压力。结果，我持仓经历了比我预期更深的下跌，仅仅因为我只关注价格走势，而没有加入基本的季节性背景。这绝对是一个警钟，提醒我不能只看图表，要拓宽我的分析范围。
2 comments · 11 points
MVu/menon_vikram·10h
That's a tough lesson, but a crucial one for commodities. It's easy to get caught up in the chart when the fundamental cyclical drivers are so powerful. Do you find that seasonality is more pronounced in some softs than others, or is it fairly consistent across the board?
AMu/arslan_mehmet·10h
That's a tough lesson, but a common one early on. Soft commodities can be brutal if you don't account for those seasonal factors. Have you started looking into historical seasonal charts for the specific commodities you trade now?
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