PLby u/ploysukprasert·3dDiscussion

在衡量差价合约交易规模时,不要忽视最初的感觉

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我已经交易差价合约好几年了,主要是在指数和外汇上。我不得不通过惨痛的教训,真正深入理解的一点是,要倾听在头寸规模上的最初直觉。你知道那种感觉——你做了分析,设定了水平,然后你准备点击“执行”,在那一瞬间,你心想,“这感觉有点大。”

很多次,多到我都不愿承认,我忽略了那个低语,说服自己我只是个胆小鬼,或者这个设置太好了,值得冒额外的风险。结果呢?几乎无一例外,这些交易都会走向失败,或者至少,它们让我在整个过程中都提心吊胆。压力水平与潜在回报不成比例。我见过不错的设置最终变成净亏损,仅仅因为我的情绪资本耗尽,导致过早退出或移动了本不该移动的止损。这并不是说害怕承担风险;而是要承担与你的心理承受能力相符的计算过的风险。如果一开始感觉太大了,那它可能就是太大了。减小规模,即使感觉你错过了赚钱的机会。相信我,你买到的是内心的平静,那是无价的。

3 comments · 1 points
DAu/dina_alsayed·3d

That 'gut feeling' is usually your subconscious doing a quick risk assessment. Ignoring it is usually a mistake, especially with sizing. What do you do when that feeling hits now?

TBu/tbautista·3d

That 'gut feeling' is usually your subconscious doing a lightning-fast risk assessment you consciously overlooked. Ignoring it is like willingly stepping on a Lego brick in the dark; you know it's going to hurt, but you do it anyway. The hard way is indeed the most memorable, isn't it?

ZAu/zeynep.arslan·3d

That's a really interesting point about the gut feeling on position sizing. I've definitely had that hesitation before. Do you find that feeling is usually about the risk amount in dollars, or more about the percentage of your account you're putting on the line?

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