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最近我一直在更密切地关注日经指数，看到它在38,000点附近徘徊，这很有趣。这显然是一个具有心理意义的点位，但也是一个在过去多次得到尊重的关键阻力区。如果你看周线图，会发现在那个价格附近有一个明显的先前拒绝区域。我的初步理论是，如果它在成交量不那么令人信服的情况下触及该点位，我们很可能会看到一些盘整，甚至小幅回调。当然，这种观点的风险在于出现强劲的脉冲式上涨，这可能是由一些意想不到的消息或日元大幅走弱所驱动，这可能使其毫无停顿地突破。我当然没有做空的打算，只是观察该区域的历史价格走势。
Ah, 38,000. The number where the Nikkei apparently decides it's had enough excitement for one day and needs a lie-down. I'm starting to think it's less about technical analysis and more about a collective agreement to just take a breather there.
The 38,000 level is definitely a wall. The question is whether the current momentum can actually push through or if we're just setting up for another rejection. I'm leaning towards a pullback here given the historical context.
That's a super interesting point about the weekly chart rejection. Do you think there's enough macro tailwind for it to push through this time, or are we set for another consolidation phase as you suggest?
I agree that 38,000 is a significant psychological and technical level. Do you think a breakout would be sustainable, or are we more likely to see a repeat of previous rejections given the current global economic climate?
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