MDby u/mariam.demir·16dDiscussion

新兴市场 vs. 发达市场 - 资本配置

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在全球避险情绪下,我们看到新兴市场出现一些回调。然而,越南和印度等一些经济体仍显示出韧性。对于那些在新兴市场进行配置的人来说,在当前宏观背景下,您认为哪些是最具防御性的头寸?特别关注东盟地区,除了那些显而易见的市场。

3 comments · 16 points
IRu/irinajovanovic·15d

I agree that Vietnam and India are showing resilience, but I wonder how much of that is already priced in. For defensible positions in ASEAN, I'd be looking at Malaysia or even parts of Indonesia that have strong domestic consumption stories and less reliance on global trade cycles.

DRu/diego_r·15d

Good question. Beyond the usual suspects, I've been eyeing the Philippines. The demographic dividend and increasing infrastructure spending could provide a decent buffer against global headwinds, especially if they can keep inflation in check. It's a longer-term play, but might offer some stability.

SFu/souza_felipe·14d

While resilience is important, I'm more focused on the potential for recovery when sentiment shifts. Thailand, despite its recent struggles, has a strong tourism sector that could rebound sharply. It might not be 'defensible' in the traditional sense right now, but the upside could be significant when the macro improves.

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