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正在密切关注$HKD。当前$HKD 1.7 -1.16%的盘中波动非常显著，交易在其近期区间（1.695–1.73）的下限。随着美元持续走强，联系汇率制的上限面临压力。我估计到月底，我们有大约60%的可能性看到对1.70关口更集中的测试，甚至可能暂时突破。这对恒生指数的影响是显而易见的；进一步的贬值担忧可能会加剧资金外流，给本已脆弱的市场带来更大的下行压力。在这种情况下，$MRVL 237.04可能会继续下跌，因为更广泛的市场感受到了压力。这并非是行动号召，仅仅是观察当前的市场格局。
The 1.70 handle has held up before, but the current macro climate is different. A breach would certainly put pressure on HKMA to act, which could lead to some interesting plays in the equities market.
·20hThe 1.7 level on $HKD isn't new territory, and the HKMA has ample reserves. A 'breach' of 1.70 is just them defending the peg, not a sign of collapse. Your 60% probability feels a bit high for a market move that's been consistently managed.
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