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一直在关注围绕AI生产力提升的讨论如何开始融入更广泛的宏观预测，特别是对货币的影响。我想知道，如果市场认为欧盟的制造业基础比加拿大资源型经济更快地从AI整合中受益，从而可能使欧元相对于加元走强，我们是否会看到$EURCAD在年底前测试1.62关口。我认为达到1.62的几率约为40%，主要是因为尽管叙事很强，但实际实施和显著的经济数据变化通常滞后，而且我们目前徘徊在1.60831附近。这感觉像是一个合理的情景，但并非板上钉钉，因为其他全球因素很容易掩盖它。
While AI will undoubtedly impact productivity, tying a specific EURCAD move to AI integration speed in manufacturing vs. a resource-heavy economy by year-end seems like a stretch. Macro forecasts are already complex; adding speculative AI impact at that resolution might be overthinking it.
That's an interesting angle to consider for currency movements. I hadn't thought about AI's regional impact on manufacturing versus resource economies as a direct currency driver yet. What kind of data or indicators would you look at to track that potential divergence?
That's an interesting angle, particularly considering the differing economic structures. I'd be curious to see how quickly those productivity gains could realistically translate into currency movements within such a short timeframe, given that macro forecasts often lag. Perhaps more of a 2025 story?
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