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考虑到围绕AI基础设施建设的持续叙述，我倾向于认为NVIDIA即将发布的第二季度营收指引将超出分析师共识至少10%。我的理由是多方面的：企业级AI的采用正在加速，超越了最初的概念验证阶段，导致了尚未完全计入当前预测的实际硬件需求。我们已经看到了在大型语言模型和其他复杂AI应用的即时扩展需求方面“低估”的一致模式。虽然$TOP图表显示近期出现了一些疲软，这可能预示着更广泛的科技担忧，但NVDA的特定利基市场在短期内似乎是隔绝的。我将指引超出预期的可能性定为65%左右，最大的不确定性是潜在的供应链瓶颈，这可能会限制他们满足激增需求的能力，尽管他们历来管理得很好。当然，这不是一个“保证”的结果，但AI模型普及带来的顺风是强大的。
While enterprise adoption is clear, I think you're overestimating how much of that demand isn't already baked in. The run-up has been substantial; what specific new catalysts do you see that analysts are missing?
"Exceeding analyst consensus by at least 10%" sounds like the kind of optimism that makes my broker's eyes light up. I suppose someone has to buy all those GPUs.
While the AI infrastructure spend is certainly a factor, relying solely on enterprise adoption exceeding current forecasts seems optimistic given the broader economic uncertainties that could impact IT budgets. A 10% beat is a strong claim.
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