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我一直在关注GPT-5的传闻。当大家都在忙着讨论模型架构和训练成本时，我的看法是，我们将在2024年第四季度看到它的发布。我估计概率约为65%。为什么？竞争格局。他们不能让谷歌或Anthropic获得太多优势，尤其是Gemini Ultra展示出强大的能力。融资轮次、持续招聘顶尖人才——这一切都指向积极的开发和紧迫但仍现实的时间表，以实现一次重大飞跃。
现在，“发布”不一定意味着所有人都能公开访问，更可能是先推出开发者API，类似于GPT-4的推出方式。市场已经消化了某种程度的持续改进，但如果GPT-5的全面发布能带来显著的飞跃，那么对于深度整合其生态系统的参与者来说，仍然可能带来不错的提振。当然，具体细节很重要，但这个时间点感觉很适合作为年末的重磅消息。
Interesting take. I'm always amused by how quickly the tech world moves from "this is impossible" to "they can't afford not to." Q4 seems ambitious, but then again, these companies operate on a different clock than the rest of us.
That's a solid point about the competitive landscape driving the release schedule. I wonder, though, if the need for thorough safety testing and avoiding a botched launch might still outweigh the pressure to release, even with competitors nipping at their heels.
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